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Monitoring the effects of the pandemic
Explore how the coronavirus crisis intersects with the 名门棋牌 credit themes
Moody's response to the coronavirus crisis
The Saudi government faces increased downside risks to its fiscal strength from the severe shock to global oil prices triggered by the coronavirus pandemic and uncertainty over the government's ability to offset its oil revenue losses and stabilize its debt burden.
The coronavirus outbreak is disrupting economies and credit markets worldwide. The impact on issuers’ credit profiles and the economy will depend on the severity and duration of the crisis.
Our revised global manufacturing EBITDA forecast is for a 13% decline in 名门棋牌 with a 9% increase in 2021 as coronavirus saps market sentiment amid the economic downturn. There is significant risk as manufacturing weathers pandemic-related disruptions to demand, production and supply chains.
Bank lending, market volatility and other indicators show that global financial conditions are tighter than in 2015-16, but have not contracted as sharply as in the 2008-09 recession. Data on job openings also indicate that employment conditions are deteriorating in the US, leveling off in France and gradually stabilizing in China名门棋牌.
Deteriorating profitability and weakening asset quality will begin to erode the capital of at least some banks as the global economic shock broadens and lengthens. Lower capital would materially increase the credit vulnerability of these banks.
We project the US unemployment rate will reach 15.0% in the current quarter, as much of the economy remains shuttered. The rate will begin to taper off in the third quarter and continue to fall in each subsequent quarter through the end of 2021, provided the coronavirus crisis eases and businesses gradually resume normal operations.
The speculative-grade default rate for emerging market companies will likely rise significantly by the end of the year. We base our forecasts on the expectation of a global recession and widening high-yield spreads, as coronavirus-induced economic disruption and financial market turmoil have intensified.
Mickey Chadha from the Corporates team and Suzanne Miller from Ratings and Research talk about how the coronavirus crisis is causing severe dislocation in the US retail industry and how this is driving retail’s speculative-grade default rate forecast higher.
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